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"Group of 3" redirects here. For the trade agreement, see G3 Free Trade Agreement.

The Group of Three (G-3 or G3) is an informal grouping made up of the United States of America, People's Republic of China, and Republic of India. The three largest countries by gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity (PPP) are China, the United States, and India. The three largest countries by population are India, China, and the United States.

References to a Group of Three of the United States, China, and India date back to the twenty-first century. Like the Group of Two grouping of the United States and China, the original concept was rooted in the strong economic growth of India and China since the 1990s which led to them becoming emerging powers and great powers in the early twenty-first century.

The World Economic Forum used the term G3 in 2023, after India became the fastest-growing major economy in the first three years after the COVID-19 recession. Since then, World Economic Forum President Borge Brende continuously promoted the idea of the G3.

History

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The United States became the third most-populous country after China and India in the 1990s after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.[1][2]

The Quad

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Main article: Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

In early 2007, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, under which India would join a formal multilateral dialogue with Japan, the United States and Australia.[3][4] This grouping became known as the Quad.[5][6] is a grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States that is maintained by talks between member countries. The grouping follows the "Tsunami Core Group" and its "new type of diplomacy" developed in response to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami.[7] The partnership is known formally as the "Quad," not the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue," noting its nature as a diplomatic, not security, partnership.[8] The "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" is a misnomer not used officially by the Quad governments.[citation needed]

The initiation of an American, Japanese, Australian and Indian defense arrangement, modeled on the concept of a Democratic Peace, was credited to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.[9] The Quad was supposed to establish an "Asian Arc of Democracy", envisioned to ultimately include countries in Central Asia, Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and other countries in Southeast Asia: "virtually all the countries on China’s periphery, except for China itself." This led some critics, such as former U.S. State Department official Morton Abramowitz, to call the project "an anti-Chinese move",[10] while others have called it a "democratic challenge" to the projected Chinese century, mounted by Asian powers in coordination with the United States. While China has traditionally favored the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Quad was viewed as an "Asian NATO;" Daniel Twining of the German Marshall Fund of the United States has written that the arrangement "could lead to military conflict," or could instead "lay an enduring foundation for peace" if China becomes a democratic leader in Asia.[11]

During the 2017 ASEAN Summits in Manila, all four former members led by Abe, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and US President Donald Trump agreed to revive the Quad partnership in order to counter China militarily and diplomatically in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the South China Sea. Tensions between Quad members and China have led to fears of what was dubbed by some commentators "a new Cold War" in the region,[12][13][14][15][16] and the Chinese government responded to the Quad dialogue by issuing formal diplomatic protests to its members, calling it "Asian NATO".[17]

China's opposition

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China sent diplomatic protests to all four members of the Quad before any formal convention of its members.[18] In May 2007 in Manila, Australian Prime Minister John Howard participated with other members in the inaugural meeting of the Quad at Cheney's urging, one month after joint naval exercises near Tokyo by India, Japan and the United States. In September 2007 further naval exercises were held in the Bay of Bengal, including Australia.[9] These were followed in October by a further security agreement between Japan and India, ratified during a visit by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Tokyo, to promote sea lane safety and defence collaboration; Japan had previously established such an agreement only with Australia.[9]

Though the Quadrilateral initiative of the Bush administration improved relationships with New Delhi, it gave the impression of "encircling" China.[19] The security agreement between Japan and India furthermore made China conspicuous as absent on the list of Japan's strategic partners in Asia.[20] These moves appeared to "institutionally alienate" China, the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and promote a "Washington-centric" ring of alliances in Asia.[19][20]

The Japanese Prime Minister succeeding Abe, Taro Aso, downplayed the importance of China in the Japan-India pact signed following the creation of the Quad, stating, "There was mention of China – and we do not have any assumption of a third country as a target such as China." Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon similarly argued that the defence agreement was long overdue because of Indian freight trade with Japan, and did not specifically target China.[21] On the cusp of visits to China and meetings with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao in January 2008, the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, declared that "India is not part of any so-called contain China effort," after being asked about the Quad.[22]

Rise of China and India

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Largest economies in the world by GDP (PPP) in 2025
according to International Monetary Fund estimates[23]
Main articles: China–India relations, India-United States relations, and Look East policy (India)

China India's economic growth led to observers predicting they will grow in geopolitical influence to shape a "new G3" alongside the United States.[24][25]

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his opening statement, on 24 May 2022, remarked the Quad has gained a significant place on the world stage and that it is a “force for good” for the Indo-Pacific region.[26] The 2024 Quad meeting was originally set to be hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was scheduled to be held in January immediately following Republic Day in India.[27] The meeting was then postponed to September in that year and was hosted by US president Joe Biden in Delaware, United States.[28] During a visit by Eric Garcetti, the idea of a QUAD satellite, to be built in co-operation between the US and India was mooted.[29] The summit held on 21 September 2024 committed the nations to the Quad Cancer Moonshot Initiative, and to the elimination of cervical cancer.[30][31]

The joint statement of the Quad foreign ministers' meeting on 21 January 2025 affirmed strengthening a free and open Indo-Pacific, and its opposition to "any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion".[32] The statement did not mention the Quad's commitment to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,[33] signalling the US government's shift to recognize North Korea as nuclear state.[34][35]

Concept of the Indo-Pacific

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Main article: Indo-Pacific

India and the United States have played a major role in purposefully redefining the "Asia-Pacific" as the "Indo-Pacific", to deepen trans-regional ties between the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas, and to, in their words, deal more effectively with the rise of China in Asia, the Middle East and Africa.[36][37] The term "Indo-Pacific" gained traction in the political lexicon and strategic thinking of not only between India and China, but also ASEAN,[38] the European Union, the United Kingdom, France,[39] Germany,[40] and the Netherlands.[41]

World Economic Forum

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President of the World Economic Forum Borge Brende promoted the idea of a Group of Three between China, India, and the United States since 2023.[42] Brende noted India in 2023 was "the fastest-growing major economy for the third consecutive year". [25] The same year, Michael Klare argued the G-3 would increasingly shape the twenty-first century given the weakness of Russia displayed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[43]

In 2024, Brende reaffirmed his support for the concept of a G3 based on economic growth, saying "This notion of G3 is now becoming a fact".[44] Although some sources claim Brende first coined the term G3, it was used before him.[25][42][24]

Other geopolitical usage of the term

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While the G3 usually refers to China, India, and the United States, some sources replace India with another entity.[25][42][24][45][46]

From the 1990s until 2006, the term referred to the G3 Free Trade Agreement between Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. The trade agreement lasted from 1995 to 2006, when Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced that his country would withdraw from the trade bloc.[47]

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace once used the term to mean the growing power of the European Union instead of India.[46] Since Brexit, the European Union is currently composed of 27 member states known as the EU 27.

Eurasia Review ran an opinion column using the term with Russia rather than India.[45]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Population and Area (Historical Censuses)" (PDF). United States Census Bureau. Archived (PDF) from the original on 24 June 2008. Retrieved 20 June 2008.
  2. ^ Almanaque Mundial 1996, Editorial América/Televisa, Mexico, 1995, pp. 548–552 (Demografía/Biometría table).
  3. ^ Brewster, David(2010). "The Australia-India Security Declaration: The Quadrilateral Redux?". ANU.
  4. ^ ""Confluence of the Two Seas" Speech by H.E.Mr. Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan at the Parliament of the Republic of India". Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. 22 August 2007. Retrieved 14 February 2021.
  5. ^ Martin, Sarah (24 May 2022). "Albanese insists 'we will determine our values' after Chinese premier reaches out to new PM". The Guardian. Retrieved 10 June 2022.
  6. ^ A. Smith, Sheila (27 May 2021). "The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
  7. ^ Buchan, Patrick Gerard; Rimland, Benjamin (16 March 2020). "Defining the Diamond: The Past, Present, and Future of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue". CSIS.org. Retrieved 24 January 2025.
  8. ^ "The Quad". Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
  9. ^ a b c Chellaney, Brahma. "Different playbooks aimed at balancing Asia’s powers". The Japan Times, 3 November 2008 (originally published by the BBC Monitoring South Asia).
  10. ^ Ching, Frank. "Asian Arc of Democracy" Korea Times, 24 February 2008.
  11. ^ Twining, Daniel. "The new Asian order’s challenge to China". Financial Times, 26 September 2007.
  12. ^ Jamali, Naveed; O'Connor, Tom (22 October 2020). "US, China's Geopolitical Battle for Asia Shapes New Power Dynamic for Region". Newsweek. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  13. ^ Heydarian, Richard (13 March 2021). "Quad summit next step towards an Asian NATO". Asia Times. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  14. ^ Kobara, Junnosuke; Moriyasu, Ken (27 March 2021). "Japan will turn to Quad in 'new Cold War': Defense Ministry think tank". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  15. ^ Rasheed, Zaheena (25 November 2020). "What is the Quad and can it counter China's rise?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  16. ^ Power, John (24 February 2021). "What is the Quad, and how will it impact US-China relations under the Biden administration?". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  17. ^ DIPANJAN ROY CHAUDHURY. "India never had a NATO mentality: EAM S Jaishankar". The Economic Times.
  18. ^ Nicholson, Brendan. "China warns Canberra on security pact". The Age, 15 June 2007.
  19. ^ a b Lee, John, "Bush legacy: Better US-India relations." The Straits Times (Singapore), 8 October 2009.
  20. ^ a b Editorial: "China left out in India-Japan pact". The Business Times Singapore, 28 October 2008.
  21. ^ Varadarajan, Siddharth. "Indian PM stresses economic, security ties with Japan not at cost of China." The Hindu (via BBC Monitoring South Asia), 23 October 2008. ProQuest 460061567
  22. ^ "PM says India not part of “so called contain China” effort" The Hindu, 11 January 2008.
  23. ^ "GDP, current prices Purchasing power parity; billions of international dollars". www.imf.org. Retrieved 9 February 2025.
  24. ^ a b c Merchant, Minhaz (1 February 2018). "India shaping the new G3".
  25. ^ a b c d Mishra, Tarun (26 August 2023). "'India, US and China will lead the New World Order': President of World Economic Forum predicts the emergence of India as a global super power". Business Today.
  26. ^ "Quad A Force For Good, Makes Indo-Pacific Better, Says PM Modi: 10 Points". NDTV.com. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
  27. ^ Mattoo, Shashank (13 December 2023). "Quad meet moved to late 2024 with Biden expected to pass on Republic Day invite". mint. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  28. ^ Haidar, Suhasini (5 February 2024). "Quad summit more likely after the U.S. elections in November: American envoy Garcetti". The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  29. ^ "The Ambassador of the United States to India visited ISRO". www.isro.gov.in. Archived from the original on 24 May 2024. Retrieved 27 May 2024.
  30. ^ Murphy, Erin L.; Bliss, Katherine E.; Morrison, J. Stephen (22 October 2024). "The Quad's Cancer Moonshot Initiative". CSIS.org. Retrieved 29 January 2025.
  31. ^ Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (21 September 2024). "Biden Hosts a Final 'Quad Summit' at His Delaware Home". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 29 January 2025.
  32. ^ "Joint Statement by the Quad Foreign Ministers". United States Department of State. Retrieved 23 January 2025.
  33. ^ "Quad joint statement omits reference to Korean Peninsula denuclearization". The Korea Times. 23 January 2025. Retrieved 23 January 2025.
  34. ^ "Trump calls North Korea a 'nuclear power,' drawing a rebuke from Seoul". NBC News. 21 January 2025. Retrieved 23 January 2025.
  35. ^ "South Korea says North not a 'nuclear power' following Hegseth's confirmation hearing remarks". Korea Joongang Daily. 15 January 2025. Retrieved 23 January 2025.
  36. ^ "Canada and the Indo-Pacific" (PDF). Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. September 2020. Retrieved 9 April 2021.
  37. ^ "Towards a Quad-Plus Arrangement?". Perth USAsia Centre. Retrieved 5 May 2020.
  38. ^ Gudrun Wacker (9 March 2021). "Europe and the Indo-Pacific: comparing France, Germany and the Netherlands". Elcano Royal Institute. Retrieved 9 April 2021.
  39. ^ "France's Indo-Pacific strategy: inclusive and principled". East Asia Forum. 12 December 2019. Retrieved 9 April 2021.
  40. ^ Caroline Tang (10 November 2020). "Risk Diversification: Germany Joins the Indo-Pacific Policy Arena". European Institute for Asian Studies. Retrieved 9 April 2021.
  41. ^ Sebastian Strangio (18 November 2020). "Following France and Germany, the Netherlands Pivots to the Indo-Pacific". The Diplomat. Retrieved 9 April 2021.
  42. ^ a b c Kumar, Manoj (28 August 2023). "India, China, and the U.S. Will Lead the New World Order".
  43. ^ Klare, Michael (19 May 2023). "Goodbye to American Century: China and India Now Rising".
  44. ^ "India's path to a $10 trillion economy; India has made G3 a fact". IndiaToday. 22 March 2024.
  45. ^ a b Teck Ghee, Lim (31 December 2024). "2025 Prediction: Is G3 in the Making?".
  46. ^ a b "US-China Relations for the 2030s: Towards a Realistic Scenario for Coexistance?". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  47. ^ "Bloomberg.com: Latin America". www.bloomberg.com. Archived from the original on 30 September 2007.
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